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DIA trails SPY and QQQ in 2026 due to its relatively low technology exposure.
Strong bank earnings and attractive financial-sector valuations support the Dow.
Midterm election years often bring lower returns and higher market volatility.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA - Free Report) offers investors exposure to some of the largest and most established U.S. companies. The benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracks 30 blue-chip stocks spanning sectors such as technology, healthcare, financials and consumer goods. The fund DIA currently holds about $44.4 billion in assets.
Price-Weighted Methodology; High Concentration Risks
Unlike most major indexes, the Dow is price-weighted, meaning higher-priced stocks have a greater influence on index performance. The index contains only 30 stocks, making it less diversified than broader benchmarks like the S&P 500.
The ETF DIA is widely spread across components, with each having less than a 12.24% share. Financials (27.2%), information technology (18.38%), and industrials (18.25%) are the top three sectors.
Let’s find out what lies ahead of the Index.
Less Tech Exposure
Today’s investing world is all-about technology and the artificial intelligence (AI). But the Dow Jones has invested 18.38% of its weights in the IT sector, which makes it an underperformer than the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500.
The Nasdaq-100-based ETF Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ - Free Report) has added about 17.7% so far this year while State StreetSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) has advanced about 8.6% this year. In contrast, the DIA ETF has gained about 6.1% in the year-to-date frame (as of June 12, 2026).
Note that Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK - Free Report) added about 28.1% so far this year. The S&P 500 has about 40% focus on the tech sector and the Nasdaq-100 has about 55% exposure to it. Hence, due to lesser tech exposure the Dow Jones fell behind the other big equity gauges.
Heavy On Financials
The Dow Jones is heavy on the financial sectors. But Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF - Free Report) has lost about 2.9% so far this year but is up 4.4% over the past month. The Iran crisis and the resultant flattening of the yield curve have weighed on the financials sector’s stock market performance.
However, upbeat big bank earnings and strong deal activities due to mega IPOs are positives for the sector. The Finance sector ranks six out of the 16 Zacks classified sectors. The Financial - Investment Bank category, from which most big banks come, is also strongly positioned at present. The industry ranks in the top 36% of the 247 industries classified by Zacks.
Projected EPS Growth of the sector is a solid 8.92% versus the S&P 500’s growth of 9.76%. The Financial - Investment Bank industry’s growth is 14.76%. The financials sector currently has a lower debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28X than the S&P 500’s 0.58X. The Financial - Investment Bank industry’s debt-to-equity ratio is even lower at 0.37X.
Average Returns Tend to Be Lower in Years of Mid-Term Elections
According to data cited by the Stock Trader's Almanac going back to 1896, the Dow has historically generated an average return of about 4% during midterm election years (like this year), compared with roughly 10.2% in pre-election years and about 6% in presidential election years, as quoted on disruptionbanking.com.
LPL Research indicated in March 2026 that midterm years have historically delivered average returns roughly five percentage points below the other three years of a presidential term, with volatility often intensifying in the six months before election day, per the same source.
Bottom Line
So, overall, the Dow Jones’ performance should be moderate in 2026, if not great. Investors can keep a close tab on the DIA ETF. The current period of high interest rates is proving more favorable for the Dow Jones than for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones has more value focus than the other two big indexes. Hence, if the Fed hikes rates ahead, the Dow Jones is likely to outperform.
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Guide to the Dow Jones ETF Investing
Key Takeaways
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA - Free Report) offers investors exposure to some of the largest and most established U.S. companies. The benchmark index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracks 30 blue-chip stocks spanning sectors such as technology, healthcare, financials and consumer goods. The fund DIA currently holds about $44.4 billion in assets.
Price-Weighted Methodology; High Concentration Risks
Unlike most major indexes, the Dow is price-weighted, meaning higher-priced stocks have a greater influence on index performance. The index contains only 30 stocks, making it less diversified than broader benchmarks like the S&P 500.
The ETF DIA is widely spread across components, with each having less than a 12.24% share. Financials (27.2%), information technology (18.38%), and industrials (18.25%) are the top three sectors.
Let’s find out what lies ahead of the Index.
Less Tech Exposure
Today’s investing world is all-about technology and the artificial intelligence (AI). But the Dow Jones has invested 18.38% of its weights in the IT sector, which makes it an underperformer than the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500.
The Nasdaq-100-based ETF Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ - Free Report) has added about 17.7% so far this year while State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - Free Report) has advanced about 8.6% this year. In contrast, the DIA ETF has gained about 6.1% in the year-to-date frame (as of June 12, 2026).
Note that Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK - Free Report) added about 28.1% so far this year. The S&P 500 has about 40% focus on the tech sector and the Nasdaq-100 has about 55% exposure to it. Hence, due to lesser tech exposure the Dow Jones fell behind the other big equity gauges.
Heavy On Financials
The Dow Jones is heavy on the financial sectors. But Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF - Free Report) has lost about 2.9% so far this year but is up 4.4% over the past month. The Iran crisis and the resultant flattening of the yield curve have weighed on the financials sector’s stock market performance.
However, upbeat big bank earnings and strong deal activities due to mega IPOs are positives for the sector. The Finance sector ranks six out of the 16 Zacks classified sectors. The Financial - Investment Bank category, from which most big banks come, is also strongly positioned at present. The industry ranks in the top 36% of the 247 industries classified by Zacks.
Cheaper Valuation of Financial Sector
The financials sector currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.50 versus 18.24 possessed by the S&P 500. The Financial - Investment Bank industry trades at a forward P/E of 14.32X.
Projected EPS Growth of the sector is a solid 8.92% versus the S&P 500’s growth of 9.76%. The Financial - Investment Bank industry’s growth is 14.76%. The financials sector currently has a lower debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28X than the S&P 500’s 0.58X. The Financial - Investment Bank industry’s debt-to-equity ratio is even lower at 0.37X.
Average Returns Tend to Be Lower in Years of Mid-Term Elections
According to data cited by the Stock Trader's Almanac going back to 1896, the Dow has historically generated an average return of about 4% during midterm election years (like this year), compared with roughly 10.2% in pre-election years and about 6% in presidential election years, as quoted on disruptionbanking.com.
LPL Research indicated in March 2026 that midterm years have historically delivered average returns roughly five percentage points below the other three years of a presidential term, with volatility often intensifying in the six months before election day, per the same source.
Bottom Line
So, overall, the Dow Jones’ performance should be moderate in 2026, if not great. Investors can keep a close tab on the DIA ETF. The current period of high interest rates is proving more favorable for the Dow Jones than for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow Jones has more value focus than the other two big indexes. Hence, if the Fed hikes rates ahead, the Dow Jones is likely to outperform.